This is a starting point. The model focuses on offensive impact, but there is more to build. A defensive lens is next, with an emphasis on evaluating defensive impact relative to salary cap hits and term.

For Young Guns, the insight is clear. If you can get meaningful contributions from players on their first contracts, you gain a significant cap advantage. The variability is high. Some players step in immediately, some take time in the AHL, and some never develop. The key is identifying who can deliver real value early in their careers to maximize their cap saving window.

For the Messy Middle, it is about finding value in limited roles. Some players exceed expectations in small minutes, while others struggle to make an impact. That is the challenge and the opportunity for front offices. Teams that get this right can create real efficiencies on the cap sheet. The truth is, every team has a contract with a player underperforming. Maximizing players in the 24–28 age range on under-market contracts creates coverage for those inefficiencies.

This is just the beginning. There is more to build, and I look forward to posting more as I learn and explore these questions.